Euro 2016 Outright Winner Odds & Analysis
EURO 2016 – The Favourites Analysis
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As we draw closer to the EURO 2016
, many backers are looking to uncover hidden value lying within the tournament field. The EURO is a unique and innovative tournament, sixteen teams advance to the knockout round which means 2 out of 3 of the initially qualified field will move on to the final elimination stage. Some favorites are offered at a deceptive prices, while others offer abundant value. Here is a breakdown of this tournament’s favorites, be careful to keep a watchful eye on some of these false favorites and sleeping giants.
France - 3:1 – LEAST VALUE
Fervidly we will attack the hosts, given the low upside offered with a team sporting sub top-twenty international rankings. The low rankings for France is exceptionally haunting considering the pure talent the French have harvested. Most notably, the French boast the services of Paul Pogba and Dimitri Payet, arguably two of the best midfielders in the world. Despite heightened expectations both this tournament and in many tournaments past, combined with world-class quality and playing the role of host, France’s chemistry is extremely volatile which makes them a very risky play.
Belgium - 11:1 – BEST VALUE
The Belgians are extraordinarily undervalued in this tournament to almost a sickening degree. To the trained eyes of tactful players, the price on the world’s No. 2 ranked national squad is scrumptious. Belgium can go extremely far and win this tournament outright. Belgium’s attack is anchored by Everton striker Romulu Lukaku, a shark that knows how to find the back of a net in critical moments. Complementing Lukaku, the highly renowned Eden Hazard who was up for all sorts of accolades when his club team Chelsea dominated the English Premier League in 2015. These two titans are just the tip of the Belgian iceberg and this team can sink any traditional favorite fast with their searing attack.
Germany - 4.5:1 - CONTENDER
We are not keen on chalk playing, but the Germans are viable favorites for a reason. The 2014 World Cup Champions have emerged as the gold standard of world football. A team known for developing young talent in to a system that is easy to master and learn, the German football machine seems to be an unstoppable juggernaut. Second to hosts France, Germany is offered at lowest odds but even at this price there is substantial value. The Germans play a methodical and efficient form of football that implores the opposition to play a perfect game.
Spain - 11:2 - CONTENDER
There was a time in recent history where Spain was the most dominant force in the world of football. The Spanish midfield was likened to the second coming of the Armada itself, that same nucleus of personnel returns to Europe’s biggest stage with less scrutiny. Spain had a disappointing 2016 World Cup campaign, much of this was attested to some key players on the Spanish side simply aging out. Spain has since rejuvenated their starting ranks with the addition of Pedro as their front man.
England – 9:1 – PRETENDER
Another household name in Europe, the English are another famed squad with a propensity for underachievement. With the revelation of both Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy, the English may have found solace in acquiring two secret weapons that they hope will catalyze an otherwise sluggish attack. We are not buying the hype, England is known for let-downs and until we see this tendency change we recommend staying off.
Italy - 16:1– PRETENDER
Once again, we have identified a European pedigree with a reputation that precedes them. Italy has not been relevant on a world stage since their storied World Cup run in 2006. Nevertheless, the name of Italy alone is enough to incite punters to opt in. Add in what appears to be friendly odds and it almost seems to be a must-play. However, we would argue that the familiarity of the public with Italy assesses a hidden premium and they are the New York Knicks of European football, a team that lacks quality offered at odds far lower than they should be.
EURO 2016 – Biggest Dark Horses and Hedge Prospects
In the EURO 2016, there are many squads that are sure-fire candidates to be a sleeper in Europe’s biggest tournament. Here is a breakdown of some potential dark horses and sleeper teams that may offer tremendous upside in futures and cash-out scenarios:
Portugal – 20:1
For some reason, much of the consensus has forgotten about the Portuguese. The Portuguese are ranked eighth in the FIFA World Rankings and yet they are offered at greater odds than Italy and over double the odds England is offered at. Portugal has the talent, as they have one of the best forwards in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo captaining the cause. The price alone dictates this play.
Turkey - 80:1
Another auspicious offering where the price dictates the play. The Turkish are ranked within the top-fifteen of the FIFA World Rankings and we get an opportunity to take back this squad at an exceptional price, considering they are ranked higher than both Italy, France and Croatia all of whom are offered at much lower odds than the Turkish.
Wales - 80:1
The Welsh looked marvelous in qualification and this has fostered some momentum for the typically unassuming club from the island of Great Britain. Wales features a dynamic playmaker in Garreth Bale and with his presence on the pitch, the Welsh can contend with virtually anyone. When you consider the fact the Welsh drew rival England, inconsistent Russia and beatable Slovakia in Group B, it is safe to assess that the Welsh have an excellent chance of making a splash in this tournament. With odds of 80:1 on the table, we will go ahead and grab the Welsh while the price is right.
Slovakia - 150:1
The Slovaks are entering off a huge win in a friendly against Germany and you have to wonder even if in a game of less consequence, the effect the victory has on the morale of the Slovaks. When any team knocks off a defending World Champion, momentum may begin to form unprecedented inertia. Now, Slovakia draws newcomer Wales, middling Russia and a potentially overvalued England. The Slovaks are foaming at the mouth to prove the result against Germany was no fluke. With lofty odds to start off with, a hedge scenario with Slovakia can be profitable if they survive the group stage. This outcome is certainly plausible. Cashing out as early as the Round of 16 can result in a nice and quick profit..
Romania - 200:1
A team that has yet to lose a game in this tournament, the Romanians are primed to up-end many squads that look past them as an easy win. Switzerland and France may be guilty of such a crime. The Romanians have drawn with the likes of Spain, Italy and Greece. This team is up for the task at challenging any team from any place. With Albania in their group, Romania may look to exploit this match-up for three quick points. If Romania can avoid any grisly defeats, this is a team that can actually go quite deep in to the tournament. With 200:1 odds out of the gate, we are licking our chops at the potential return if Romania makes it to the Quarterfinals which is quite conceivable if a few bouts of luck fall their way.