Spain vs Croatia Betting Tips
Spain vs. Croatia EURO 2016 Group Stage – Group D Game 3 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 – Bordeaux, France Odds: Spain 21/20, Draw 28/13, Croatia 4/1 Our Play: Draw 28/13 For live odds visit Bet365 sportsbook or Smarkets betting exchange For latest odds you can check a few recommended sportsbooks and betting exchanges
Mirroring the trends we have seen when the top two teams in any group square off in the final fixture of their group campaigns, we will go in on a draw between Spain and Croatia. With bottom-feeders Czech Republic and Turkey squaring off in their Group D finale, Croatia knows that a draw secures them advancement in to the knockout round of sixteen no matter what transpires between the Czechs and Turkish. While Croatia may be tempted to play for a win, they risk rendering themselves vulnerable for a loss at the hands of the Spanish if they play this one too aggressive. Thus, we will likely see the Croatians approach this one with their foot off the gas to ensure they move on. Conversely, Spain has already assured qualification for the next stage of play in the EURO tournament. The Spanish have nothing to play for themselves as nine points would seem to be a novelty more than seven points which achieves the same goal, topping the table and winning the group. This contest behooves Spain not to be too cavalier in their approach. A loss would also knock them off the top of the table and place them in second. With this being said, the Spanish will likely do what Croatia is trying to do, avoid the loss and let the chips fall where they may. In terms of betting markets, reactions and odds, we saw an almost identical scenario unfold in the France/Switzerland fixture. Switzerland entered as a 9/2 pooch, the draw was offered at 9/4 and France was offered at evens. The game resulted in a scoreless draw. Let us now look at this distinct market, Spain is just above evens at +105, a draw is just above 2:1 and Croatia is 4:1. The proximity of figures indicates that the books expect a similar result to take shape in this affair and that is why we will hop in on the draw while the iron is hot. From this juncture moving forward, Spain and Croatia will likely see a reduction in odds as favorites to win this tournament outright. Spain has played well in this tournament and Croatia made it to the semifinals in 2012. With both teams advancing, the market will likely cater to household familiarity with both sides and thus we will expect to see these clubs overvalued after they exit this contest. In this distinct scenario, the jury is out on who is overvalued and undervalued but the draw offers an excellent amount of upside and return. With consideration to these variables, we will stay off both Spain and Croatia and call for the draw. Do not be surprised if this contest mirrors what we saw with France and Switzerland or Germany and Poland where neither side manages to find the back of the net. For latest odds you can check a few recommended sportsbooks and betting exchanges