Italy vs Sweden Betting Tips
In
Euro 2016,
by
bettingbonusestoday staff
on Jun 15, 2016
Italy vs. Sweden
EURO 2016 Group Stage – Group E Game 2
Friday, June 17, 2016 – Toulouse, France
Odds: Italy 11/13, Draw 5/2, Sweden 9/2
Our Play: No Play
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Sweden backed their way in to a point in their first group stage fixture when Ireland made a rookie mistake and allowed an own goal after jumping out to a one goal lead. Italy pulled off an impressive win over our highly-regarded horse to win the EURO race, Belgium in their opening fixture. With these considerations made, Italy enters just as a slight favorite.
The question remains whether or not this price reflects the true value of both sides in this affair, as Italy’s name alone often forces takers to pay a little bit more for backing a squad of recognition. This same squad also recently pulled off a spectacular victory against perhaps the side with the most quality in this tournament which once again will likely cause Italy’s stock to rise further. Additional inquiries can be made as to how different these odds would have been had Sweden not been the benefactors of good fortune in acquiring a draw through an Ireland blunder, would these offerings be much different?
We suspect Sweden may have been offered at a price of close to 6/1 had they lost to Ireland outright as this would have further caused commotion and generated more prudence to cast Italy at an even higher price. The fact Sweden was given a gift allows us to see the Swedes at their true odds to defeat Italy right now with Italy’s premium considered, it is a probably a 4.5:1 chance. Nevertheless, we called Sweden a one-trick pony and their stallion Zatlan Ibrahmovic was silent against Ireland. We will once again implore that the Swedish do not own a draw or win over any nation of consequence. The fact of the matter remains that Sweden got lucky and thus they are set up to be demolished at the hands of Italy in their second fixture. The problem with this notion is that much of the football world will buy in to this premise as well and typically we like to fade the consensus when it comes to blue-chip teams like Italy.
We are sure to give credit when it is due and Italy pulled off an astounding win over Belgium. However, we are reluctant to play on the heavy tournament favorites and we have a disposition of staying clear of them outright due to the juice they often cause takers to lay. In our first trek through the group matches, we took just one these favorites to win in a group fixture and that favorite was a marginal one that caused us to get burnt. This is a reference to England who were the victims of a late equalizer against Russia, a team that didn’t even belong on the same pitch with the English. Outside of this, we stayed clear of Portugal and they drew and we stayed clear of Belgium and Italy and the result cultivated reflected the instability associated with heavy favorites. We targeted France and would have been successful outside of a late miraculous effort that saved them from an opening setback. We also targeted Germany and Austria who were offering enhanced odds if we backed their opponents and landed one of those two, netting five units overall. Bottom line is this, backing heavy favorites is likely to kill your bankroll and every now and then the pooch comes up big. In this situation, we don’t see that pooch having the potential to pull off an upset but we won’t take the public darling in Italy either, so we once again will stay clear.
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