Hungary vs Portugal Betting Tips

In by on Jun 22, 2016

Hungary vs Portugal
EURO 2016 Group Stage – Group F Game 3
Wednesday, June 21, 2016 – Lyon, France
Odds: Hungary 11/1, Draw 7/2, Portugal 4/9
Our Play: Draw 7/2 For live odds visit Bet365 sportsbook or Smarkets betting exchange

For latest odds you can check a few recommended sportsbooks and betting exchanges

We would not admonish anyone from playing Hungary outright in this one given the price of 11/1. There is an insane amount of value on playing on the Hungarians outright given how they have played this far in the group stage. However, if Hungary draws against Portugal tomorrow they can win Group F outright as long as Iceland does not beat Austria 3-0, the likelihood of such an event would be astronomical.

A win for Hungary over Portugal would be a benchmark in an already stellar campaign but they do not need the win to meet all their needs and then some. It would be prudent for Hungary to keep the ball away from Portugal and force this team in to a stalemate, similar to what we saw with Austria and Portugal in their most recent clash days ago. Austria has just one point in the table, Iceland has two. Portugal also has two. Hungary is the only team with a win against any opponent in this group this far and thus if they secure a draw with their two point advantage, they control their own destiny.

The odds we are seeing Portugal offered at is absurd. Portugal has yet to win a contest in their group stage against teams they were heavily favored against. First off Iceland, who was casted as a 7/1 pup against the Portuguese. The final result as we have alluded to previously was 1-1. Portugal would follow up their efforts with a scoreless draw against a 4.3/1 dog in Austria. With all these considerations made, Hungary is offered at 11/1 outright and Portugal is virtually portioned at halves.

Betting is as much psychological as it is statistical. From assessing the marketing, there is a predilection present that entices backers to believe that Hungary’s run is a fluke and Portugal is lying in wait. This preposition may in fact be true and not a fallacy, but the juice required here is certainly not worth the squeeze and finding out.

Teams like Portugal will inherently have a propensity to be overvalued because they are household names. While Portugal is regarded as a second-tier squad compared to teams like Germany or France or Spain, the Portuguese are certainly more recognizable than Hungary or Iceland. However, the play of Hungary is what should garner attention and we are of the school of thought that we would rather risk one unit to make three or even eleven back rather than risk two units to make one. The philosophy we employ yields more longevity and success over prolonged durations. Playing on heavy favorites like Portugal in this instance is a guaranteed and fail-proof way to wreck your bankroll. With all things being considered, expect Hungary to enter this fixture conservative. So we will also be conservative and not go for the home-run on the 11/1 bet, but rather play on the draw as that would benefit Hungary just as much.

For latest odds you can check a few recommended sportsbooks and betting exchanges