EURO 2016 – Group E Winner Analysis
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The EURO 2016 features six groups of four distinctly talented national clubs, vying for sixteen positions in the second stage or “Knockout Round”. First, these teams have to play each other in their corresponding groups in a round-robin format. The rules are the same as in any other major tournament: 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, 0 points for a loss. The team with the most points after playing each opponent once wins the group and advances to play a runner-up or wildcard third-place qualifier. Draws in standings are settled by Goal Differential. Teams that finish in second also advance slated to a play a group winner. For many intent and purposes, some regard Group E as the deepest group in the tournament, featuring a traditional European power in Italy and FIFA’s second-ranked team in the world, Belgium. Here is a breakdown of this strong group:
Belgium 15/13 – BEST VALUE
If we can secure the best team in the tournament according to FIFA rankings at above-even odds, we will hop aboard immediately. As we have stated previously, the Belgians are extraordinarily undervalued in this tournament to an absurd capacity. Belgium has some serious firepower in their arsenal. Most notably, forwards Romulu Lukaku, Christian Benteke and Eden Hazard comprise a methodical and lethal attack that we have seen light up scoreboards all over the English Premier League. Now, Europe has to be weary for all these horsemen are not coming at them in single doses, but in one very dangerous unit. This is almost a must play.
Italy 9/5 – LEAST VALUE
In any sport, there are teams that you simply pay a heavy price to back by namesake alone. Italy is a team that fits that profile. The Italians are often identified as one of the premiere European pedigrees with a reputation that precedes them. Nevertheless, the Italians have not been relevant on a world stage since their storied World Cup run in 2006. Since 2006, Italy has declined rapidly as their squad has aged but not like the fine wine imported from their native land. The sheer presence of Italy in this group, allows us to take Belgium at above even odds because their brand is enticing, setting up a potential snare for backers and giving sharps a chance to get a quality club in Belgium at a great price. While the books may suggest that Group E is a two-horse race between Belgium and Italy, we have reason to believe that this is Belgium’s group to lose.
Sweden – 6:1
We often enjoy taking teams with fluffy odds but in this group, it is hard to find any appeal outside of Belgium given their incredulous offering. The discussion is no longer whether Sweden or Ireland will win the group, it is where they will finish. For the Swedish, there is no discernable or notable victory which compels to believe there is a glimmer of hope for this side in the group stage. Simply because Ireland is not known as a nation that fancies football, the Swedes were pitched as the third best team in this market according to the books. However, the difference between the best club in this group and the second-best is huge. Once we trickle down further to the likes of the third and fourth best clubs in this group, the grade of quality once again diminishes greatly.
Ireland - 12:1
While the Irish are known typically as a country that enjoys other sports more than football, there is much to be excited about in the Emerald Isle. The Irish own some very impressive results in both friendlies and qualification. Since October of last year, the Irish have outscored Switzerland and Germany while drawing both the Netherlands and Slovakia. For a national squad that is not known for such proficiency, the Irish offer tremendous upside in this group as they know how to play with the “big dogs” and will likely enter this one with nothing to lose. While it is hard to push the Irish getting ahead of both the Italians and Belgians, it is not safe to assume they can orchestrate an upset and finish ahead of the Swedish. While we won’t call for the play, we will say there is more value here than the Swedish.
Where to bet on the Euro 2016 Tournament
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