EURO 2016 – Group D Winner Analysis
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The EURO 2016 features six groups of four distinctly talented national clubs, vying for sixteen positions in the second stage or “Knockout Round”. First, these teams have to play each other in their corresponding groups in a round-robin format. The rules are the same as in any other major tournament: 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, 0 points for a loss. The team with the most points after playing each opponent once wins the group and advances to play a runner-up or wildcard third-place qualifier. Draws in standings are settled by Goal Differential. Teams that finish in second also advance slated to a play a group winner. Group D is an interesting crop of constituents, featuring two 2014 World Cup qualifiers, most notably Spain who won the 2010 World Cup in unprecedented fashion. In addition, the presence of Turkey purveys the perfect set-up for a potent sleeper option in the EURO.
Croatia 7/2 – LEAST VALUE
After defeating San Marino by a whopping 10-0, combined with a 5-0-1 record in their last six fixtures, the Croatians seem like a solid second choice for Group D. We have dissenting opinions. The results the Croatian football machine has fostered was against highly anemic opposition. The most comprehensive result over this recent run was a 3-1 win over Russia in a friendly, but we have our suspicions with Russia so that achievement is not much to boast. Beating up on Moldova, Israel, Malta, Bulgaria, Gibraltar and Azerbaijan will not gain our attention. The Croatians may have drawn Italy twice but the Italians have been vastly overvalued themselves. At this price, we don’t think Croatia offers much upside.
Turkey - 9:1 – BEST VALUE
We were ready to dive in to Turkey as an outright from the prospect of a hedge scenario. We find it hard to find the Turks uprooting the Spanish in this group stage, but the prospect them of slithering to the next stage as a runner-up is certainly plausible. Turkey is ranked within the top-fifteen of the FIFA World Rankings and as we have highlighted previously, Turkey is ranked higher than Croatia who are offered at lower odds than the Turkish. Furthermore, Turkey has some familiarity with the Czech Republic, putting up a 2-0 result against them most recently in their qualification campaign. This is simply a value play but if you are going to stay off Spain simply due to the juice, Turkey is the best alternative.
Spain – 4/6
Once again we will not advocate throwing down juice in virtually any situation, it is a hazardous practice to engage in and we are not going to promote making a habit of it. Nevertheless, the Spanish like Germany are a quality play. This was a tournament that Spain owned not too long ago. After hitting what many assumed as their peak in 2010, Spain had a disappointing 2014 World Cup campaign, much of this was we have mentioned previously attested to some key players on the Spanish side simply aging out. However, Spain seems to be back with a vengeance and Group D is seemingly wrapped with a bow for them.
Czech Republic – 10:1
While we would never suggest sleeping on any team, the Czechs are likely the weakest club in this group and the price reflects this respectively. The Czechs owned the Netherlands in qualification but this is not something worth boasting, considering this Netherlands squad was not the Dutch teams of old we are accustomed to. Therefore, we suggest staying clear of this team altogether.
Where to bet on the Euro 2016 Tournament
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